Advances in Business & Industrial Marketing Research

Trade Openness and Indonesia's Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of the Role of Exports and Imports in Gross Domestic Product

2026-07-15T13:13:11+07:00

Purpose: This study examines the effects of exports and imports, as indicators of trade openness, on Indonesia’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in both the short run and the long run.

Research Method: Quarterly data from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2026 (45 observations) were obtained from Statistics Indonesia. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, including descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, lag selection using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), bounds testing, and short-run dynamic estimation.

Results and Discussion: The results show that all variables are non-stationary at level but none is integrated of order two, validating the use of the ARDL model. The optimal specification is ARDL (1,4,1). The bounds test produces an F-statistic of 1.737, below the 5% lower critical bound (4.135), indicating no long-run equilibrium relationship between trade openness and real GDP. Moreover, exports and imports have no statistically significant short-run effects on economic growth. In contrast, significant second- and third-quarter dummy variables reveal seasonal patterns in GDP fluctuations, suggesting that aggregate trade values alone do not sufficiently explain economic growth.

Implications: Trade policies should prioritize increasing domestic value added, improving productivity, and strengthening industrial linkages rather than merely expanding trade volumes.

Originality: This study provides recent evidence on the trade openness–growth nexus in Indonesia using post-2015 quarterly data and demonstrates the limited explanatory power of aggregate trade flows in the absence of stronger domestic productive capacity.

Short-Run and Long-Run Relationship Between Indonesia's Export Value and Real Gross Domestic Product: Quarterly Data Analysis 2010Q1–2026Q1

2026-07-15T13:16:27+07:00

Purpose: This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship between export value and Indonesia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to evaluate the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis.

Research Method: The study uses 65 quarterly observations from 2010 to 2026, consisting of real GDP at constant 2010 prices and export value. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, bounds test for cointegration, unit root test, and diagnostic and stability tests were employed to examine the relationship between the variables.

Results and Discussion: The unit root results indicate that both variables are integrated of order one, I(1). Based on the Bayesian Information Criterion, the ARDL (1,1) model was selected as the optimal specification. The bounds test produced an F-statistic of 0.874, which is below the 5% lower critical bound, indicating no long-run cointegrating relationship between export value and real GDP. Although changes in export value have a positive and statistically significant short-run effect, the model exhibits heteroskedasticity, non-normal residuals, and parameter instability, particularly during the economic shock in the second quarter of 2020. These findings suggest that higher export values alone do not guarantee sustained economic growth because their impact depends on export composition, domestic value added, import content, and broader macroeconomic conditions.

Implications: Policies should emphasize export diversification and higher domestic value-added production rather than focusing solely on increasing export value.

Originality: This study provides updated evidence on Indonesia’s export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data through 2026 and demonstrates the absence of a stable long-run relationship despite significant short-run effects.

The Role of Customer Engagement as a Mediator of the Effects of Digital Ad Personalization and Interactive Digital Content on Consumer Trust on TikTok Shop

2026-07-27T18:24:15+07:00

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of Digital Ad Personalization and Interactive Digital Content on Consumer Trust, with Customer Engagement as a mediating variable, among TikTok Shop users in the Generation Z segment in Indonesia.

Research Method: This study employed a quantitative approach with an explanatory survey design. Data were collected from 200 active TikTok Shop users through purposive sampling using an online questionnaire. Data analysis was conducted using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with the assistance of SmartPLS 4.0 software to test the measurement model, structural model, and mediating effects.

Results and Discussion: The results of the study indicate that Digital Ad Personalization and Interactive Digital Content have a positive and significant effect on Customer Engagement and Consumer Trust. In addition, Customer Engagement has a positive effect on Consumer Trust and was found to partially mediate the relationship between Digital Ad Personalization and Interactive Digital Content and Consumer Trust.

Implications: These findings suggest that digital marketing strategies that integrate ad personalization and interactive content can increase consumer engagement while strengthening consumer trust in social commerce platforms. Further research is recommended to develop a model by adding other variables and expanding the characteristics of the respondents.

Originality: The novelty of this study lies in integrating Digital Ad Personalization, Interactive Digital Content, Customer Engagement, and Consumer Trust into a single PLS-SEM-based mediation model in the context of TikTok Shop in Indonesia.