Article Sidebar

Download
PDF
Statistic
Read Counter : 14 Download : 14

Main Article Content

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to examine the influence of global gold price movements on Indonesia's financial market indicators, namely the Rupiah exchange rate and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), during the 2020–2026 period.


Research Method: A quantitative associative approach was employed using monthly secondary time-series data collected from Investing.com, Bank Indonesia, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Multiple linear regression analysis was applied to assess the relationships among the variables.


Results and Discussion: The findings reveal that global gold prices are associated with fluctuations in Indonesia's financial markets. The JCI model yielded an R-Square value of 0.620 with a Significance F value of 3.22 × 10⁻¹⁷, while the Rupiah exchange rate model produced an R-Square value of 0.373.


Implications: These results highlight the importance of monitoring gold price volatility in investment decision-making and financial stability policies.


Originality: This study simultaneously investigates the effects of global gold prices on both the Rupiah exchange rate and the JCI, providing evidence from Indonesia during the post-pandemic period.

Keywords

global gold price Jakarta composite index rupiah exchange rate haven theory arbitrage pricing theory

Article Details

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite
Rachmat, A. R., Yulianah, Y., Nurdin, A., Amelia, D. A., Putri, P. A., & Agustrianto, A. (2026). The Impact of Rising Gold Prices on Financial Markets and the Rupiah Exchange Rate. Advances in Community Services Research, 4(2), 94–105. https://doi.org/10.60079/acsr.v4i2.897
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX

References

  1. Abdosh, I. A. (2025). The Golden Bridge: Evaluating Stability, Credibility, and Shariah Compliance of Gold-Backed Crypto Assets in Islamic Finance. Hamad Bin Khalifa University (Qatar).
  2. Ady, S. U. (2021). The effect of world oil prices, gold prices, and other energy prices on the indonesian mining sector with exchange rate of indonesian rupiah as the moderating effect. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(5), 369–376. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11351.
  3. Anas, M., Bouri, E., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2025). A Bibliometric analysis of literature on hedge and safe haven assets. Journal of Economic Surveys, 39(5), 1852–1882. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12677
  4. Andriyani, R., & Pimada, L. (2025). The Influence of Global Risks on the Composite Index. Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies, 4(4). https://doi.org/10.21776/jdess.2025.04.4.05
  5. Anwar, C. J., Okot, N., Suhendra, I., Yolanda, S., Ginanjar, R. A. F., & Sutjipto, H. (2022). Response Of Exchange Rate To Monetary Policy Shocks an Evidence From Indonesia. The Exchange Rate Is a Significant Determinant in Shaping the Direction of Monetary Policy. This Study Examines the Exchange Rate Reactions to Monetary Policy Shocks in Indonesia from 2005 to 2021 Using a Vector Autoregression Model, 14(1), 443–466. http://eprints.untirta.ac.id/id/eprint/25142
  6. Ayu, A. (2023). Analysis of Factors Influencing Job Satisfaction and Work Performance. Ninth Padang International Conference on Economics Education, Economics, Business and Management, Accounting and Entrepreneurship (PICEEBA 2022), 386–396. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-158-6_35
  7. Azimah, A., & Mujibno, M. (2025). Pengaruh Perubahan Harga Emas Dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Profitabilitas ROA Bank Syariah Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Perbankan Syariah (JIMPA), 5(2). https://doi.org/10.36908/jimpa.v5i2.672
  8. Bagnara, M. (2024). Asset pricing and machine learning: A critical review. Journal of Economic Surveys, 38(1), 27–56. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12532
  9. Dong, M. C., Chen, C. W. S., Lee, S., & Sriboonchitta, S. (2019). How Strong is the Relationship Among Gold and USD Exchange Rates? Analytics Based on Structural Change Models. Computational Economics, 53(1), 343–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-017-9743-z
  10. Echaust, K., & Just, M. (2022). Is gold still a safe haven for stock markets? New insights through the tail thickness of portfolio return distributions. Research in International Business and Finance, 63, 101788. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101788
  11. Feder-Sempach, E., Szczepocki, P., & Bogołębska, J. (2024). Global uncertainty and potential shelters: gold, bitcoin, and currencies as weak and strong safe havens for main world stock markets. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 67. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00589-w
  12. Foroutan, P., & Lahmiri, S. (2024). Connectedness of cryptocurrency markets to crude oil and gold: an analysis of the effect of COVID-19 pandemic. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00596-x
  13. Fournier, M., Jacobs, K., & Orłowski, P. (2024). Modeling conditional factor risk premia implied by index option returns. The Journal of Finance, 79(3), 2289–2338. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13324
  14. Hany, L., Imtikhanah, S., & Andayani, T. D. (2025). The Impact of the Rupiah Exchange Rate, Interest Rates, Inflation, Global Oil Prices, and the Dow Jones Index on the JCI. Innovation Business Management and Accounting Journal, 4(3 SE-Articles), 127–138. https://doi.org/10.56070/ibmaj.icals.2024.021
  15. Harris, R. D. F., & Shen, J. (2017). The intrinsic value of gold: An exchange rate-free price index. Journal of International Money and Finance, 79, 203–217. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.007
  16. Hidayat, R. (2022). The Effect of World Gold Price , World Oil Price , USD / IDR Exchange Rate , and Inflation on the Joint Stock Price Index ( JCI ) On the Indonesia Stock Exchange ( IDX ). Scholars Bulletin, 9771, 33–41. https://doi.org/10.36348/sb.2022.v08i01.005
  17. Ibrahim, M. H., & Sukmana, R. (2023). Monetary policy and exchange rate in a large emerging economy. Global Business Review, 09721509231198660. https://doi.org/10.1177/09721509231198659
  18. Kumar, S., Kumar, A., & Singh, G. (2023). Causal relationship among international crude oil, gold, exchange rate, and stock market: Fresh evidence from NARDL testing approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2404
  19. Li, B., Haneklaus, N., & Rahman, M. M. (2024). Dynamic connectedness and hedging opportunities of the commodity and stock markets in China: evidence from the TVP-VAR and cDCC-FIAPARCH. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 52. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00607-x
  20. Maitra, S. (2025). Theoretical Overview: Capital Asset Pricing and Arbitrage Pricing Theory BT - A Practical Guide to Static and Dynamic Econometric Modelling: Examples and Analysis with Python Code Embedded (S. Maitra (ed.); pp. 65–72). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-86862-7_4
  21. Maryatmo, R. (2023). The Role of Expectations on Exchange Rate Determination in Indonesia. KINERJA, 27(1), 148–162. https://doi.org/10.24002/kinerja.v27i1.6926
  22. Moriya, K., & Noda, A. (2023). On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices. ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:2305.05998. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.05998
  23. Ningsi, N. E., & Idris, I. (2021). Pengaruh harga emas dunia, nilai tukar, inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap return saham sektor keuangan di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 3(1), 39–52. https://doi.org/10.24036/jkep.v3i1.11539
  24. Nugroho, T. B. A., & Dwiridotjahjono, J. (2025). Determinants of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Based on the Nikkei Stock Exchange 225 Index (N225), Brent Crude Oil Price, and Rupiah Exchange Rate for the Period 2020-2023. Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE), 8(3), 15419–15433. https://doi.org/10.31538/iijse.v8i3.6547
  25. Pandit, S., & Luo, X. (2025). A novel prediction model to evaluate the dynamic interrelationship between gold and crude oil. International Journal of Data Science and Analytics, 20(2), 1161–1182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-024-00519-8
  26. Pratiwik, E., & Prajanti, S. D. W. (2023). Rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 24(1), 100–126. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18016
  27. Rohmawati, S., Mutmainnah, M., Asas, F., & Khasanah, U. (2022). Analysis Of The Effect Of The Rupiah Exchange, World Oil Price, World Gold Price On The Joint Stock Price Index In The Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Science, Technology & Management, 3(1), 153–166.
  28. Rosdiana, R., & Sohilauw, M. I. (2024). Capital Asset Pricing Model Versus Arbitrage Pricing Theory Model: Which Is More Accurate For Investment? EKUITAS (Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan), 8(2), 240–256. https://doi.org/10.24034/j25485024.y2024.v8.i2.6283
  29. Rosdiyana, R., & Setyaningsih, N. D. (2022). Pengaruh kurs, suku bunga, inflasi dan harga emas dunia terhadap return saham. Jurnal EMA (Ekonomi Manajemen Akuntansi), 7(2), 85–94. https://doi.org/10.47335/ema.v7i2.130
  30. Sikiru, A. A., & Salisu, A. A. (2022). Assessing the hedging potential of gold and other precious metals against uncertainty due to epidemics and pandemics. Quality & Quantity, 56(4), 2199–2214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-021-01214-7
  31. Simonato, J.-G., & Denault, M. (2023). Multiperiod portfolio allocation: A study of volatility clustering, non-normalities and predictable returns. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 68, 101997. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101997
  32. Simran, & Sharma, A. K. (2025). Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Forecasting Gold Futures Volatility: Evidence From India. Journal of Futures Markets, 45(8), 1006–1022. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22600
  33. Sinaga, M. A. W., Nuzula, N. F., & Damayanti, C. R. (2023). The psychology of risk influence and investor sentiment on investment decision making in the Indonesian stock market. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Bisnis, 18(2), 197. https://doi.org/10.24843/JIAB.2023.v18.i02.p01
  34. Situmorang, J., & Dwiridotjahjono, J. (2026). Determinants of Corporate Credit Growth. Advances in Economics & Financial Studies, 4(2), 100–110. https://doi.org/10.60079/aefs.v4i2.820
  35. Triantafyllou, A., Bakas, D., & Ioakimidis, M. (2023). Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(4), 4194–4219. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2642
  36. Yani, T. A. (2024). The Role of Central Banks in Modern Monetary Policy: A Review. Advances: Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 2(1), 37–45. https://doi.org/10.60079/ajeb.v2i1.219
  37. Yue, W. (2022). The Overview of Indonesia’s Exchange Rate Changes and Influencing Factors BT - Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Business and Policy Studies (X. Li, C. Yuan, & I. Ganchev (eds.); pp. 170–176). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5727-7_18
  38. Zahrok, F. F., Sulchan, M., Almira, D. T., & Aeni, E. A. N. (2021). Gold Prices, World Oil Prices and Large Trade Price Index on Indonesian Sharia Stock Index with Exchange Value as A Moderating Variable in Indonesia. Indonesian Economic Review, 2(2), 81–91. https://doi.org/10.53787/iconev.v2i2.12