Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose: This study evaluates the implementation of fuel subsidy policies in Indonesia and examines their implications for the sustainability of the State Budget (APBN) from the perspectives of fiscal efficiency and social protection.
Research Method: A descriptive qualitative approach was employed using documentation studies and literature review. Data were collected from official government documents, including APBN Financial Notes, Central Government Financial Reports (LKPP), BPK audit reports, fuel subsidy regulations, and empirical studies published between 2022 and 2025. Data were analyzed inductively using Mazmanian and Sabatier's policy implementation framework.
Results and Discussion: The findings indicate that fuel subsidy implementation remains constrained by targeting inaccuracies, institutional limitations, unequal digital access, and vulnerability to fluctuations in global oil prices and exchange rates. The effectiveness of digital monitoring systems and quota mechanisms depends on institutional readiness, data quality, and inter-agency coordination.
Implications: Strengthening beneficiary databases, institutional coordination, and fiscal governance is essential for improving subsidy effectiveness and sustainability.
Originality: This study operationalizes Mazmanian and Sabatier's framework to explain how legal structures, institutional capacity, target-group characteristics, and external conditions shape the implementation of fuel subsidies in Indonesia.
Keywords
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References
- Abimanyu, A., & Imansyah, M. H. (2023). The Impact of Fuel Subsidy on Income Distribution: The Case of Indonesia. Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara Dan Kebijakan Publik, 8(3), 189–203. https://doi.org/10.33105/itrev.v8i3.932
- ACTION, E. S. R. I. N. (2024). Approaches and Insights from Recent Research on Energy Subsidy Reform.
- Aguila, N., & Wullweber, J. (2024). Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates. Eurasian Economic Review, 14(1), 39–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00266-y
- Akhmadi, A., Asse, A., Nursalam, N., Ibrahim, I., Bunyamin, B., Ansaar, A., & Sahajuddin, S. (2023). The impact of the increase of oil fuel price and government subsidy on Indonesia’s economic performance. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(6), 547–557. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15033
- Akimaya, M., & Dahl, C. (2022). Political power, economic trade-offs, and game theory in Indonesian gasoline subsidy reform. Energy Research & Social Science, 92, 102782. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102782
- Al Izzati, R., Yusrina, A., & Suryahadi, A. (2023). Estimating the effect of a fuel price increase on poverty and inequality: Evidence from a fuel subsidy reduction in Indonesia. Research Note 1/JAN/2023. SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta.
- Auclert, A., Monnery, H., Rognlie, M., & Straub, L. (2023). Managing an energy shock: Fiscal and monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w31543
- Bobasu, A., Dobrew, M., & Repele, A. (2025). Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality. European Economic Review, 175, 104986. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104986
- Cherniaieva, O., Mуkhalchenko, H., Ataieva, O., Marshalok, T., & Petrukha, S. (2025). Optimizing Budgeting and Financial Management for Sustainable Economic Growth and Fiscal Resilience. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 14(2), 430. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2025.v14n2p430
- Dano, D. (2022). Analisis dampak konflik Rusia–Ukraina terhadap harga bahan bakar minyak Indonesia. CENDEKIA: Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan, 2(3), 261–269. https://doi.org/10.51878/cendekia.v2i3.1494
- Dotti, N. F., Colnot, L., Walczyk, J., Kupiec, T., & Pellegrin, J. (2024). Triggering policy learning via formal EU evaluation requirements in the case of Cohesion Policy. European Policy Analysis, 10(4), 515–531. https://doi.org/10.1002/epa2.1226
- Fierro, L. A., Kinarsky, A. R., Echeverria‐Estrada, C., Sabat Bass, N., & Christie, C. A. (2022). The importance of implementation: Putting evaluation policy to work. New Directions for Evaluation, 2022(173), 49–62. https://doi.org/10.1002/ev.20490
- Harmono, W. (2022). Dampak Kebijakan Pengalihan Subsidi BBM di Tengah Krisis Multinasional Terhadap Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Kreatif Dan Manajemen Bisnis Digital, 1(2), 327–333. https://doi.org/10.55047/jekombital.v1i2.343
- Harrison, A., & Segelhorst, A. (2024). Do consumer price indices in oil-producing economies respond differently to oil market shocks? Evidence from Canada. Empirical Economics, 67(5), 2039–2076. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02606-y
- Huber, J., & Scharrer, C. (2024). The fiscal and intergenerational burdens of brakes and subsidies for energy prices. International Tax and Public Finance, 31(5), 1249–1273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-023-09807-8
- Indrawati, S. M., Satriawan, E., & Abdurohman. (2024). Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of the Pandemic. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2335967
- Jacob, S. (2024). Navigating the challenges of policy evaluation. Canadian Public Administration, 67(2), 282–290. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12571
- Joshaghani, H., Morovati, M., Moshiri, S., & Rafizadeh, N. (2024). The effects of fuel subsidies on regional income distribution through smuggling. Journal of Regional Science, 64(5), 1596–1621. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12720
- Kpodar, K., & Liu, B. (2022). The distributional implications of the impact of fuel price increases on inflation. Energy Economics, 108, 105909. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105909
- Lee, C.-C., & Hussain, J. (2023). An assessment of socioeconomic indicators and energy consumption by considering green financing. Resources Policy, 81, 103374. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103374
- Muda, I., Mulia, A., Adity, S. P., Sembiring, A. S., & Hasibuan, A. W. (2025). Analysis Of Indonesia State Budget And The Reality Of Deficit And Budget Efficiency. JIAR: Journal Of International Accounting Research, 4(02), 89–94. https://doi.org/10.62668/jiar.v4i02.2301
- Poggiese, M., & Ibañez Martin, M. M. (2024). Combining energy subsidies is not free: distributional effects and energy poverty. LIX Reunión Anual de La AAEP https://aaep.org.ar
- Purtle, J., Moucheraud, C., Yang, L. H., & Shelley, D. (2023). Four very basic ways to think about policy in implementation science. Implementation Science Communications, 4(1), 111. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43058-023-00497-1
- Putra, T. R., Lestari, M. M., & Haryono, D. (2025). Limitation of Fuel Subsidy in Healthizing State Revenue and Expenditure Budget . Journal of Public Representative and Society Provision, 5(1 SE-), 113–121. https://doi.org/10.55885/jprsp.v5i1.473
- Sager, F., & Gofen, A. (2022). The polity of implementation: Organizational and institutional arrangements in policy implementation. Governance, 35(2), 347–364. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12677
- Sampe, S. (2023). Efektivitas Penerapan Kebijakan Subsidi Bahan Bakar Minyak. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 13(1), 43–49. https://doi.org/10.35797/jab.13.1.43-49
- Savelli, I., Bokkisam, H. R., Cuffe, P., & Morstyn, T. (2023). On-demand energy flexibility market via smart contracts to help reduce balancing costs in Great Britain. Energy Economics, 126, 106931. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106931
- Wendt, J., Scheller, D. A., Banik, A., Luszczynska, A., Forberger, S., Zeeb, H., Scheidmeir, M., Kubiak, T., Lien, N., Meshkovska, B., Lobczowska, K., Romaniuk, P., Neumann-Podczaska, A., Wieczorowska-Tobis, K., Steinacker, J. M., & Mueller-Stierlin, A. S. (2023). Good practice recommendations on implementation evaluation for policies targeting diet, physical activity, and sedentary behaviour. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 1259. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15775-9
- Whitsel, L. P., Honeycutt, S., Radcliffe, R., Johnson, J., Chase, P. J., & Noyes, P. (2024). Policy implementation and outcome evaluation: establishing a framework and expanding capacity for advocacy organizations to assess the impact of their work in public policy. Health Research Policy and Systems, 22(1), 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-024-01110-0
- Yan, H., Qamruzzaman, M., & Kor, S. (2023). Nexus between green investment, fiscal policy, environmental tax, energy price, natural resources, and clean energy—a step towards sustainable development by fostering clean energy inclusion. Sustainability, 15(18), 13591. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813591
- Yani, T. A. (2024). The Role of Central Banks in Modern Monetary Policy: A Review. Advances: Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 2(1 SE-Articles), 37–45. https://doi.org/10.60079/ajeb.v2i1.219
- Yuniza, M. E., Nuswantari, S. F. S., & Jatmiko, P. K. (2023). Policy Analysis Of Fuel Subsidy In Indonesia. Jurnal de Jure, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.36277/jurnaldejure.v15i2.841
References
Abimanyu, A., & Imansyah, M. H. (2023). The Impact of Fuel Subsidy on Income Distribution: The Case of Indonesia. Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara Dan Kebijakan Publik, 8(3), 189–203. https://doi.org/10.33105/itrev.v8i3.932
ACTION, E. S. R. I. N. (2024). Approaches and Insights from Recent Research on Energy Subsidy Reform.
Aguila, N., & Wullweber, J. (2024). Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates. Eurasian Economic Review, 14(1), 39–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-024-00266-y
Akhmadi, A., Asse, A., Nursalam, N., Ibrahim, I., Bunyamin, B., Ansaar, A., & Sahajuddin, S. (2023). The impact of the increase of oil fuel price and government subsidy on Indonesia’s economic performance. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(6), 547–557. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15033
Akimaya, M., & Dahl, C. (2022). Political power, economic trade-offs, and game theory in Indonesian gasoline subsidy reform. Energy Research & Social Science, 92, 102782. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102782
Al Izzati, R., Yusrina, A., & Suryahadi, A. (2023). Estimating the effect of a fuel price increase on poverty and inequality: Evidence from a fuel subsidy reduction in Indonesia. Research Note 1/JAN/2023. SMERU Research Institute, Jakarta.
Auclert, A., Monnery, H., Rognlie, M., & Straub, L. (2023). Managing an energy shock: Fiscal and monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w31543
Bobasu, A., Dobrew, M., & Repele, A. (2025). Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality. European Economic Review, 175, 104986. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104986
Cherniaieva, O., Mуkhalchenko, H., Ataieva, O., Marshalok, T., & Petrukha, S. (2025). Optimizing Budgeting and Financial Management for Sustainable Economic Growth and Fiscal Resilience. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 14(2), 430. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2025.v14n2p430
Dano, D. (2022). Analisis dampak konflik Rusia–Ukraina terhadap harga bahan bakar minyak Indonesia. CENDEKIA: Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan, 2(3), 261–269. https://doi.org/10.51878/cendekia.v2i3.1494
Dotti, N. F., Colnot, L., Walczyk, J., Kupiec, T., & Pellegrin, J. (2024). Triggering policy learning via formal EU evaluation requirements in the case of Cohesion Policy. European Policy Analysis, 10(4), 515–531. https://doi.org/10.1002/epa2.1226
Fierro, L. A., Kinarsky, A. R., Echeverria‐Estrada, C., Sabat Bass, N., & Christie, C. A. (2022). The importance of implementation: Putting evaluation policy to work. New Directions for Evaluation, 2022(173), 49–62. https://doi.org/10.1002/ev.20490
Harmono, W. (2022). Dampak Kebijakan Pengalihan Subsidi BBM di Tengah Krisis Multinasional Terhadap Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Kreatif Dan Manajemen Bisnis Digital, 1(2), 327–333. https://doi.org/10.55047/jekombital.v1i2.343
Harrison, A., & Segelhorst, A. (2024). Do consumer price indices in oil-producing economies respond differently to oil market shocks? Evidence from Canada. Empirical Economics, 67(5), 2039–2076. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02606-y
Huber, J., & Scharrer, C. (2024). The fiscal and intergenerational burdens of brakes and subsidies for energy prices. International Tax and Public Finance, 31(5), 1249–1273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-023-09807-8
Indrawati, S. M., Satriawan, E., & Abdurohman. (2024). Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of the Pandemic. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2335967
Jacob, S. (2024). Navigating the challenges of policy evaluation. Canadian Public Administration, 67(2), 282–290. https://doi.org/10.1111/capa.12571
Joshaghani, H., Morovati, M., Moshiri, S., & Rafizadeh, N. (2024). The effects of fuel subsidies on regional income distribution through smuggling. Journal of Regional Science, 64(5), 1596–1621. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12720
Kpodar, K., & Liu, B. (2022). The distributional implications of the impact of fuel price increases on inflation. Energy Economics, 108, 105909. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105909
Lee, C.-C., & Hussain, J. (2023). An assessment of socioeconomic indicators and energy consumption by considering green financing. Resources Policy, 81, 103374. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103374
Muda, I., Mulia, A., Adity, S. P., Sembiring, A. S., & Hasibuan, A. W. (2025). Analysis Of Indonesia State Budget And The Reality Of Deficit And Budget Efficiency. JIAR: Journal Of International Accounting Research, 4(02), 89–94. https://doi.org/10.62668/jiar.v4i02.2301
Poggiese, M., & Ibañez Martin, M. M. (2024). Combining energy subsidies is not free: distributional effects and energy poverty. LIX Reunión Anual de La AAEP https://aaep.org.ar
Purtle, J., Moucheraud, C., Yang, L. H., & Shelley, D. (2023). Four very basic ways to think about policy in implementation science. Implementation Science Communications, 4(1), 111. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43058-023-00497-1
Putra, T. R., Lestari, M. M., & Haryono, D. (2025). Limitation of Fuel Subsidy in Healthizing State Revenue and Expenditure Budget . Journal of Public Representative and Society Provision, 5(1 SE-), 113–121. https://doi.org/10.55885/jprsp.v5i1.473
Sager, F., & Gofen, A. (2022). The polity of implementation: Organizational and institutional arrangements in policy implementation. Governance, 35(2), 347–364. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12677
Sampe, S. (2023). Efektivitas Penerapan Kebijakan Subsidi Bahan Bakar Minyak. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 13(1), 43–49. https://doi.org/10.35797/jab.13.1.43-49
Savelli, I., Bokkisam, H. R., Cuffe, P., & Morstyn, T. (2023). On-demand energy flexibility market via smart contracts to help reduce balancing costs in Great Britain. Energy Economics, 126, 106931. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106931
Wendt, J., Scheller, D. A., Banik, A., Luszczynska, A., Forberger, S., Zeeb, H., Scheidmeir, M., Kubiak, T., Lien, N., Meshkovska, B., Lobczowska, K., Romaniuk, P., Neumann-Podczaska, A., Wieczorowska-Tobis, K., Steinacker, J. M., & Mueller-Stierlin, A. S. (2023). Good practice recommendations on implementation evaluation for policies targeting diet, physical activity, and sedentary behaviour. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 1259. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15775-9
Whitsel, L. P., Honeycutt, S., Radcliffe, R., Johnson, J., Chase, P. J., & Noyes, P. (2024). Policy implementation and outcome evaluation: establishing a framework and expanding capacity for advocacy organizations to assess the impact of their work in public policy. Health Research Policy and Systems, 22(1), 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-024-01110-0
Yan, H., Qamruzzaman, M., & Kor, S. (2023). Nexus between green investment, fiscal policy, environmental tax, energy price, natural resources, and clean energy—a step towards sustainable development by fostering clean energy inclusion. Sustainability, 15(18), 13591. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813591
Yani, T. A. (2024). The Role of Central Banks in Modern Monetary Policy: A Review. Advances: Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 2(1 SE-Articles), 37–45. https://doi.org/10.60079/ajeb.v2i1.219
Yuniza, M. E., Nuswantari, S. F. S., & Jatmiko, P. K. (2023). Policy Analysis Of Fuel Subsidy In Indonesia. Jurnal de Jure, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.36277/jurnaldejure.v15i2.841