Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose: This study examines the effects of economic growth, industrial value added, and population on carbon dioxide emissions in five ASEAN countries and tests the proposed relationships among these variables.
Research Method: A quantitative panel-data design was applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam during 2015–2024, producing 50 observations. Data were obtained from international databases and analyzed using panel-data regression. The Chow and Hausman tests selected the Fixed Effect Model, supported by normality, heteroscedasticity, and multicollinearity tests.
Results and Discussion: Industrial value added positively and significantly affects carbon emissions, with a coefficient of 0.8179 and a p-value of 0.0000. Population also has a positive and significant effect, with a coefficient of 1.5385 and a p-value of 0.0014. Economic growth has no significant effect. The model explains 98.62% of the variation in carbon emissions. These findings show that industrialization and population growth are the main emission drivers in the selected ASEAN countries.
Implications: ASEAN governments should promote industrial decarbonization, renewable energy, clean technology, sustainable urban planning, and country-specific environmental policies.
Originality: This study provides recent comparative evidence by accounting for country-specific heterogeneity through the Fixed Effect Model.
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References
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- Aliyuddin, M., Komarlina, D. H. L., & Susilo, I. B. F. D. (2026). Manufacturing, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions in ASEAN: A Dynamic Story Unfolded through Panel VAR Analysis. Tanjungpura Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.33830/tjeb.v6i2.12177
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- Nguyen, D. K., & Nguyen, G. K. (2025). Re-examining the growth--emission relationship assessing threshold effects of trade, FDI, and renewable energy in ASEAN. University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City. http://digital.lib.ueh.edu.vn/handle/UEH/76560
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- Susilowati, I., Rozi, M. F., Ismiyati, S., D. S., & Sholikhah, M. (2025). Economic Structure, Energy Transition, and Carbon Emissions in ASEAN Maritime States: Panel ARDL Approach. MORFAI Journal, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.54443/morfai.v6i1.4761
- Tran, H. T., & Tran, P. T. (2025). Analyzing determinants of CO2 emissions in ASEAN: Evidence from panel regression and threshold model. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(4), 1044–1056.
References
Ali, I. (2025). Economic Growth, Trade Integration, and Environmental Sustainability in ASEAN Economies: A Panel Econometric Investigation of CO₂ Emissions. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=5576213
Aliyuddin, M., Komarlina, D. H. L., & Susilo, I. B. F. D. (2026). Manufacturing, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions in ASEAN: A Dynamic Story Unfolded through Panel VAR Analysis. Tanjungpura Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.33830/tjeb.v6i2.12177
Anser, M. K., et al., (2025). Population dynamics, economic growth, energy mix, and environmental pollution in ASEAN: Exploring the role of renewable, nuclear, and nonrenewable energy using the CCEMG approach. ScienceDirect.
Claire, B., & Widyawati, D. (2023). Impact of industrialization and renewable energy on carbon dioxide emission in 9 ASEAN countries. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 15(2), 183–198. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art6
Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey. Ecological Economics, 49(4), 431-455.
Ghofur, M. A., RoziqiFath, Z. F. M., Ali, M. F., Arifiana, D., & Azizov, M. (2026). The Energy-Emission-Growth Nexus in ASEAN: A Heterogeneous Panel Analysis of Renewable Transition and Economic Outcomes. E3S Web of Conferences, 714, 06001. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202671406001
Hamim, H. A. b., & Jalil, S. A. (2024). Examining The Impact of Macroeconomics Factors on Carbon Emissions in Selected 7 ASEAN Members: A Panel Data Analysis. Information Management and Business Review, 16(3), 203–212.
Nguyen, D. K., & Nguyen, G. K. (2025). Re-examining the growth--emission relationship assessing threshold effects of trade, FDI, and renewable energy in ASEAN. University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City. http://digital.lib.ueh.edu.vn/handle/UEH/76560
Othman, N., Wahab, S. N., Hewage, R. S., Ismail, F. R., & Chindo, S. (2024). Validating the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from ASEAN's Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions. BIO Web of Conferences, 131, 02007. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202413102007
Prinadi, A. N., Sarungu, J. J., Suryantoro, A., & Gravitiani, E. (2022). Impact of Economic Growth, Industrial Value Added, and Population on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the ASEAN Region—International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research.
Santana, F. R., & Maria, N. S. B. (2024). Determinan Emisi CO2 pada Negara Anggota ASEAN Tahun 2015-2022. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 13(2), 53–68.
Susilowati, I., Rozi, M. F., Ismiyati, S., D. S., & Sholikhah, M. (2025). Economic Structure, Energy Transition, and Carbon Emissions in ASEAN Maritime States: Panel ARDL Approach. MORFAI Journal, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.54443/morfai.v6i1.4761
Tran, H. T., & Tran, P. T. (2025). Analyzing determinants of CO2 emissions in ASEAN: Evidence from panel regression and threshold model. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(4), 1044–1056.