Article Sidebar

Cover of AHRMR Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026)
Download
PDF
Statistic
Read Counter : 90 Download : 77

Main Article Content

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the short- and long-run effects of global interest rates on bank lending across ASEAN-5 countries and evaluates cross-country differences in credit responses to global financial shocks. It further assesses the Global Interest Rate (GIR) hypothesis and the concept of Regional Structured Financial Equilibrium within ASEAN financial systems.


Research Method: The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach to identify short- and long-run relationships between global interest rates, bank lending, and macroeconomic conditions. Country-level analysis is conducted across ASEAN-5 economies to capture heterogeneous responses within regional credit systems.


Results and Discussion: The findings indicate heterogeneous responses of banks to global interest-rate shocks across ASEAN-5 countries. While global interest-rate movements may constrain credit conditions in the short run, bank lending demonstrates more favorable long-run dynamics alongside expected economic growth. The results support the relevance of the GIR hypothesis and regional financial-equilibrium perspective.


Implications: Policymakers should consider country-specific credit responses when designing monetary policy, financial-stability policy, and regional coordination policies.


Originality: This study integrates global interest-rate transmission, ASEAN-5 credit heterogeneity, and Regional Structured Financial Equilibrium within a unified analytical framework.

Keywords

global interest rate bank lending ASEAN-5 ARDL financial shocks regional financial equilibrium

Article Details

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite
Goeyardi, G. M., Alimudin, A., & Yulianah, Y. (2026). The Effect of Global Interest Rates on ASEAN Credit Disbursement: ARDL Analysis and Bounds Test. Advances in Human Resource Management Research, 4(3), 572–588. https://doi.org/10.60079/ahrmr.v4i3.1117
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX

References

  1. Anwar, C. J., Okot, N., Suhendra, I., Indriyani, D., & Jie, F. (2024). Monetary policy, macroprudential policy, and bank risk-taking behaviour in the Indonesian banking industry. Journal of Applied Economics, 27(1), 2295732. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2023.2295732
  2. Anwar, C. J., Suhendra, I., Didu, S., Sayektiyani, A., & Kholishoh, L. N. (2023). The impact of monetary policy and credit risk on bank credit behavior: An analysis of banks listed on the Indonesian stock exchange. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(1), 2220250. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2220250
  3. Bawono, S., Sanusi, A., Supriadi, B., Triatmanto, B., & Widarni, E. L. (2023). Effects of asset diversification and human capital efficiency on bank performance: evidence from asian countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 10(1), 123-132. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2023.vol10.no1.0123
  4. Bawono, S., Zainuri, Z., & Wilantari, R. N. (2019). Dynamics of Real Exchange Rate and Three Financial Crises: Purchasing Power Parity Relative Approach In Indonesia And Thailand. International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research, 8(5), 58–62. https://doi.org/10.54204/ijstr855862
  5. Bawono, S. (2026). THE MACRO EDGE: Advanced Introduction to Macroeconomic Systems and Econometric Modeling. PT. Fresh Junior. https://doi.org/10.54204/fros060422
  6. Behera, H., Gunadi, I., & Rath, B. N. (2023). COVID-19 uncertainty, financial markets and monetary policy effects in case of two emerging Asian countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 78, 173–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.03.001
  7. Chandio, A. A., Ozdemir, D., Vigne, S. A., & Du, A. M. (2024). Towards sustainable agricultural development and food security in East Asia: The role of broad money and banking credits. International Review of Economics & Finance, 96, 103677. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103677
  8. Chapuzet, A. C. (2021). Endogenous market development in Indonesia. Tamansiswa Management Journal International, 3(1), 8–8. https://doi.org/10.54204/TMJI/Vol312021003
  9. Chapuzet, A. C. (2022). The the role of digital financial inclusion and social welfare in realizing sustainable development: English. Accounting Journal International, 4(1), 51–58. https://doi.org/10.54204/TMJI/Vol412022008
  10. Drean, B. (2022). Sri Lanka's Green Policy Disaster and Investigation of the Green Economy and Human Capital in Sri Lanka. Accounting Journal International, 5(1),16–21. http://doi.org/10.54204/TAJI/Vol512022004
  11. Drean, B., & Bawono, S. (2021). The Potential of Rural Development in Indonesia based on the perspective of Employment in Agriculture and Economic Value Added in the Agricultural Sector: English. Asian Economic And Business Development, 1(2), 27-33.
  12. Handayani, F., & Setiastuti, S. U. (2025). Monetary-Macroprudential Policy Synergy Through the Bank Lending Channel in Indonesia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 61(4), 1113–1129. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2024.2404171
  13. Indrawati, S. M., Satriawan, E., & Abdurohman. (2024). Indonesia's fiscal policy in the aftermath of the pandemic. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2335967
  14. Khan, M. A., Khan, Z., & Saleem, S. F. (2023). Monetary policy effectiveness in Asian developing economies: the moderating role of financial sector development. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 15(3), 226–247. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-01-2023-0021
  15. Mittal, R., Kathuria, T., Saini, M., Dhingra, B., & Yadav, M. (2023). Effect of financial inclusion and fintech on the effectiveness of Indian monetary policy: an empirical investigation. International Journal of Social Economics, 50(12), 1702-1718. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-01-2023-0034
  16. Mochtar, D. A., Supriyadi, S., Bawono, S., Indrayanti, K. W., & Putra, E. N. (2025). Law Reform, Justice, and Sustainable Tourism: Evaluating Legal Impacts on Hospitality Growth and Environmental Sustainability. Journal of Law and Legal Reform, 6(3), 1377–1410. https://doi.org/10.15294/jllr.v6i3.23376
  17. Naiborhu, E. D. (2024). The lending implications of loan loss provisioning and monetary policy in Indonesia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 86, 102446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102446
  18. Priyanto, E., Widarni, E. L., & Bawono, S. (2022). The effect of internet inclusion on financial inclusion in P2P lending in Indonesia based on human capital point of view. Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Indonesia, 107–121. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80262-431-120221008
  19. Rohma, F. F. (2023). Does a green economy mentality exist? An experimental study in emerging country. Asian Journal of Business Ethics, 12(2), 285–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13520-023-00174-5
  20. Roy, R., Bashar, O. H., & Bhattacharya, P. S. (2023). The cross-industry effects of monetary policy: New evidence from Bangladesh. Economic Modelling, 127, 106479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106479
  21. Sahoo, M., Mohanty, S. P., & Sahu, P. (2025). Effect of monetary policy transmission on the use-based classification of manufacturing industry in India: an empirical evidence. International Journal of Law and Management, 67(6), 654–676. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJLMA-11-2023-0260
  22. Sasongko, B., Bawono, S., & Prabowo, B. H. (2021). The economic performance of china in trade war: The case study of three global economic crises in 1997–2020. In Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia (pp. 1–11). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1571-03862021000029B022
  23. Sasongko, B., Widarni, E. L., & Bawono, S. (2021). Transaction Cost for Salt Farmers in Pesanggrahan Village, Kwanyar District, Bangkalan Regency. Studies of Applied Economics, 39(12),1-13. https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v39i12.6007
  24. Sulisnaningrum, E., Mutmainah, S., Bawono, S., & Drean, B. (2023). Investigating The Impact of ICT Developments on the Environment in the Digital Economy and Green Economy in Southeast Asia. International Journal of Professional Business Review: Int. J. Prof. Bus. Rev., 8(5), 10. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i5.1052
  25. Triatmanto, B., & Bawono, S. (2023). The interplay of corruption, human capital, and unemployment in Indonesia: Implications for economic development. Journal of Economic Criminology, 2, 100031. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconc.2023.100031
  26. Triatmanto, B., Bawono, S., & Wahyuni, N. (2023). The contribution and influence of total external debt, FDI, and HCI on economic growth in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines. Research in Globalization, 7, 100163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100163
  27. Viphindrartin, S., & Bawono, S. (2025). Strategy for Improving MSME Performance through Learning Organizations: Case Study in Indonesia. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 22, 1542–1552. https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2025.22.124
  28. Vo, T. K. L., & Ho, N. K. (2025). The impact of private credit and foreign direct investment on economic growth: evidence from ASEAN-5 countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 13(1), 2578342. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2025.2578342
  29. Wang, J., Cui, M., & Chang, L. (2023). Evaluating economic recovery by measuring the COVID-19 spillover impact on business practices: evidence from Asian markets intermediaries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 56(3), 1629–1650. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09482-z
  30. Widarni, E. L. and Bawono, S. (2022). Technology Investment, Consumption, and Economic Growth in Poverty Eradication Efforts in Indonesia. In Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Indonesia (pp. 217-223). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80262-431-120221013
  31. Widarni, E. L., & Bawono, S. (2021). The comparison of foreign financial investment and human investment effect on economic in indonesia based on macro economic point of view. Studies of Applied Economics, 39(12),1-12. https://doi.org/10.25115/eea.v39i12.6006
  32. Widarni, E. L., & Bawono, S. (2023). Investigating the role of education in stability of work participation in economic shocks from the Asian financial crisis to the Covid 19 pandemic in Indonesia. International Journal of Professional Business Review: Int. J. Prof. Bus. Rev., 8(1), 3. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i1.811
  33. Wilantari, R. N., Prianto, E., Mukhlis, M., Dwiningsih, S., Bawono, S., & Allen, D. (2023). Tax and MSMEs in the Digital Age: Why Do We Need To Pay Taxes And What Are The Benefits For Us As MSME Entrepreneurs And How To Build Regulations That Are Empathetic And Proven To Encourage Tax Revenue In The Informal Sector. PT. Frost Junior. https://doi.org/10.54204/fros20260422Tax
  34. Zainuri, Z., Viphindrartin, S., Wilantari, R. N., Widarni, E. L., Bawono, S., & Rifqi Fathoni, M. (2024). Indonesia's financial resilience: Between optimism and risk. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(12), 6890. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i12.6890