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Abstract

Purpose: This study examines shifts in Indonesia’s external borrowing during 2021–2025 and the macro-fiscal and governance channels through which debt composition may create fiscal vulnerability.


Research Method: A descriptive qualitative secondary-data design combines year-end external-debt statistics from Bank Indonesia with a focused review of scholarly and institutional sources. Analysis covers debt composition, the external-debt-to-GDP ratio, exchange-rate exposure, refinancing pressure, fiscal space, domestic revenue capacity, and debt governance.


Results and Discussion: Total external debt declined in 2022 and then increased to USD 431.7 billion in 2025. From 2021 to 2025, public-sector external debt rose from USD 209.2 billion to USD 238.9 billion, while private-sector external debt fell from USD 205.9 billion to USD 192.8 billion. The external-debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 35.0% to 29.9%. Fiscal vulnerability operates principally through currency exposure, debt-service and refinancing pressure, constrained fiscal space, and governance quality.


Implications: The study relies on secondary evidence and does not estimate causal effects. Policy implications emphasize prudent borrowing, productive allocation, currency-risk management, domestic revenue capacity, and transparent debt governance.


Originality: The study integrates debt composition, macro-fiscal exposure, governance, and fiscal resilience in a qualitative assessment of Indonesia’s recent external-borrowing dynamics.

Keywords

External Borrowing Fiscal Vulnerability Public Debt Fiscal Sustainability Debt Governance Indonesia

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How to Cite
Goeyardi, G. M., Sukoco, A., & Alimudin, A. (2026). Dynamics of External Borrowing and Fiscal Vulnerability in Indonesia. Advances: Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 4(1), 111–119. https://doi.org/10.60079/ajeb.v4i1.1156
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