Article Sidebar

Download
PDF
Statistic
Read Counter : 31 Download : 33

Main Article Content

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the effects of exports and imports, as indicators of trade openness, on Indonesia’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in both the short run and the long run.


Research Method: Quarterly data from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2026 (45 observations) were obtained from Statistics Indonesia. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, including descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, lag selection using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), bounds testing, and short-run dynamic estimation.


Results and Discussion: The results show that all variables are non-stationary at level but none is integrated of order two, validating the use of the ARDL model. The optimal specification is ARDL (1,4,1). The bounds test produces an F-statistic of 1.737, below the 5% lower critical bound (4.135), indicating no long-run equilibrium relationship between trade openness and real GDP. Moreover, exports and imports have no statistically significant short-run effects on economic growth. In contrast, significant second- and third-quarter dummy variables reveal seasonal patterns in GDP fluctuations, suggesting that aggregate trade values alone do not sufficiently explain economic growth.


Implications: Trade policies should prioritize increasing domestic value added, improving productivity, and strengthening industrial linkages rather than merely expanding trade volumes.


Originality: This study provides recent evidence on the trade openness–growth nexus in Indonesia using post-2015 quarterly data and demonstrates the limited explanatory power of aggregate trade flows in the absence of stronger domestic productive capacity.

Keywords

ARDL exports imports real gross domestic product trade openness

Article Details

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite
Tumbel, N. J. (2026). Trade Openness and Indonesia’s Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of the Role of Exports and Imports in Gross Domestic Product. Advances in Business & Industrial Marketing Research, 4(3), 217–231. https://doi.org/10.60079/abim.v4i3.1006
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX

References

  1. Ali, A., Fatima, N., Rahman Ali, B. J. A., & Husain, F. (2023). Imports, Exports and Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-A Relational Variability Analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 18(6).
  2. Anoruo, E., & Ahmad, Y. (2000). Openness and economic growth: Evidence from selected ASEAN countries. The Indian Economic Journal, 47(3), 110–117. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019466220000313
  3. Bank, W. (2024). Indonesia economic prospects, December 2024: Funding Indonesia’s vision 2045. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/42561
  4. Bouattour, M., Kanoun, S., & Helali, K. (2026). Non-linear impact of trade openness on Arab Maghreb Union economic growth: Empirical evidence from the PSTAR approach: Bouattour et al., Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 36(1), 7.
  5. Dzreke, S., & Dzreke, S. E. (2025). The Credibility Gap: Why 68% of Marketers Reject Superior AI Reports (200-CMO Blind Test). Advances in Business & Industrial Marketing Research, 3(3), 177-188. https://doi.org/10.60079/abim.v3i3.625
  6. Dzreke, S., & Dzreke, S. E. (2025). The Symbiotic Dance–How Agile Supply Chains and Strategic Marketing Orchestrate Brand Responsiveness to Evolving Consumer Demands. Advances in Business & Industrial Marketing Research, 3(3), 151-162. https://doi.org/10.60079/abim.v3i3.624
  7. Elfaki, K. E., Handoyo, R. D., & Ibrahim, K. H. (2021). The impact of industrialization, trade openness, financial development, and energy consumption on economic growth in Indonesia. Economies, 9(4), 174. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040174
  8. Fakhri, M., & Lupiyoady, R. (2026). Trust as a Moderator in AI Adoption among Indonesian MSMEs: A Multi-Group Analysis of Necessity versus Opportunity Entrepreneurship. Advances in Business & Industrial Marketing Research, 4(2), 197-216. https://doi.org/10.60079/abim.v4i2.840
  9. Hodijah, S., & Angelina, G. P. (2021). Analisis pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Terapan dan Keuangan, 10(1), 53–62. https://doi.org/10.22437/jmk.v10i01.12512
  10. Juniarti, R., & Septriani, S. (2024). Analysis of The Impact of International Trade Openness on GDP in Seven ASEAN Countries. In Bengkulu International Conference on Economics, Management, Business and Accounting (BICEMBA) (Vol. 2, pp. 1679–1694).
  11. Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2023). ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. The Stata Journal, 23(4), 983–1019. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231212434
  12. Millia, H., Syarif, M., Adam, P., Rahim, M., Gamsir, G., & Rostin, R. (2021). The effect of export and import on economic growth in Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 11(6), 17–23. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11870
  13. Nam, H.-J., & Ryu, D. (2024). Does trade openness promote economic growth in developing countries? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 93, 101985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101985
  14. Nopiana, E., Habibah, Z., & Putri, W. A. (2022). The effect of exchange rates, exports and imports on economic growth in Indonesia. Marginal: Journal Of Management, Accounting, General Finance And International Economic Issues, 1(3), 111–122.
  15. Putra, A. P., Liana, D., & Conteh, M. L. (2025). The impact of trade openness on Indonesia’s economic growth. Journal of Economics Development Issues, 8(1), 52–67. https://doi.org/10.33005/jedi.v8i1.381
  16. Siregar, A. P., & Widjanarko, N. P. A. (2022). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: Evidence from agricultural countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 9(3), 23–31.
  17. Suryandaru, R. A. (2023). The relationship between public debt, trade openness, and economic growth in Indonesia: symmetric and asymmetric analysis. Thailand and The World Economy, 41(1), 35–60.
  18. Tahir, M., Abdullah, A., Albahouth, A. A., & Burki, U. (2026). Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Growth: Panel Data Evidence from the ASEAN Region. Economies, 14(2), 48. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14020048
  19. Wen, Y., Song, P., Gao, C., & Yang, D. (2023). Economic openness, innovation and economic growth: Nonlinear relationships based on policy support. Heliyon, 9(1), e12825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12825
  20. Yusoff, M. B., & Febrina, I. (2014). Trade openness, real exchange rate, gross domestic investment and growth in Indonesia. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 8(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801013506398